Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
