Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
